重要经济目标空袭次生灾害风险评估方法

Risk assessment for secondary disasters caused by air strikes on critical infrastructures

为评估重要经济目标遭受空袭打击的可能性,基于目标价值理论和空袭目标选择理论提出了"易受打击性"概念,用于量化目标遭受空袭打击的可能性,并根据空袭次生灾害风险评估原理建立了重要经济目标空袭次生灾害风险评估方法体系。通过对石油化工厂苯储罐的案例研究,展示了风险评估方法的可操作性和可行性。研究结果表明,风险减缓因子对苯储罐的次生灾害风险具有减缓效果,重要经济目标空袭次生灾害风险评估结果有利于合理分配防护资源和制定有效安全管理策略。

To effectively solve the air strike likelihood,the concept “attack-vulnerability”of target was newly proposed to quantify it on the basis of the target value and selection theory.Furthermore,according to the secondary disaster risk assessment theory,a methodology was constructed for critical infrastruc-tures under air strikes.Then a notional example about a petrochemical plant was provided to demonstrate the practicability and viability of the proposed assessment methodology.It has shown that the secondary disaster risk can be reduced obviously after taking risk mitigation factors into consideration;and that the risk assessment result can be useful for distributing defensive resources and making security management strategy.