瓦斯爆炸事故演化机理的综合论事故模型研究

Synthetic theory model for evolution mechanism of gas explosion accidents

为预防煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故,研究其演化机理是十分必要的。在总结1950—2013年间发生的126起特别重大瓦斯爆炸事故的基础上,运用混沌理论分析瓦斯爆炸事故演化过程的混沌特性,建立瓦斯爆炸事故综合论事故模型,阐述瓦斯爆炸事故各因素的演化关系。结果表明:瓦斯爆炸事故演化过程具有蝴蝶效应、随机性、分形性等特征;瓦斯爆炸事故的发生,虽然从微观上看是人的不安全行为和物的不安全状态导致的,但从宏观上看是社会因素、组织因素、情境因素交叉耦合作用的结果。

Aiming at preventing gas explosion accidents in coal mines, it is necessary to study their evolution mechanism 126 extraordinary big gas explosion accidents occuring in the period of 1950 -2013 were analyzed. Chaotic characteristics of evolution mechanism of gas explosion were researched according to the theory about chaos. A synthetic theory model wes built for gas explosion accidents in order to explain relationships between various factors. The results show that evolution process of gas explosion can be characterized by butterfly effect, randomness, and fractal, among others, and that from a micro-perspective, gas explosion accidents are caused by the unsafe behavior of human beings and unsafe status of matters, but they re- sult from cross coupling of social factors, organizational factors and situational factors.