施工度汛应急资源的动态调度网络研究

Research on dynamic scheduling network of construction anti-flood emergency resources

为在有限的施工度汛应急资源状态下安全、经济地度汛,考虑度汛风险的不确定性,采用动态博弈网络技术,建立不同危机处理点的应急资源动态网络调度模型。根据模型计算结果选择适宜的危机处理点,制订施工度汛应急资源的最佳调度方案,将度汛风险造成的危害程度降到最低。用该模型能在不完全信息下制定方案,并统筹兼顾到在信息完全情况下的及时调整。将模型应用于枕头坝工程施工度汛应急资源调度方案的制定中。结果表明:枕头坝施工度汛时,为避免发生更大灾难,无论处于哪种危机状态,施工决策者都应按模型计算得出的相应方案,将应急资源调动到危机处理点处进行抢险救灾,以减少损失。

In order to take anti-flood measures safely and economically with limited emergency resources, considering the uncertainty of anti-flood risk, a dynamic network scheduling model of emergen- cy resources was established in different crisis-handling points by using program evaluation and review technique with dynamic game. According to calculation results of the model, suitab｜e crisis-handhng points will be chosen and the optimal scheduling solution of flood emergency resources in construction anti-flood will be formulated in order to minimize harm that may be caused by flood risk. This model can be used to make the solution formulated under an incomplete information condition, and balance timely adjustments under a complete information condition. The model was applied to the emergency resource scheduling scheme for construction flood control of pillow dam. The resuh shows that when taking anti-flood measures, construction decision-maker shall mobilize emergency reduce losses according to the corresponding solution condition is. resources to crisis handling point for disaster relief to obtained by using the model no matter what the crisis