气候变化条件下洪泽湖以上流域水资源演变趋势

Evolutionary tendency of water resources in the basin above Hongze Lake under the condition of climate change

基于IPCC对全球和中国的气候变化趋势,利用1990—2011年气象资料,采用增量情景设置方法,分析气候变化情景下洪泽湖以上流域水资源的演变趋势。结果表明:该流域水资源量对降雨变化有较强的敏感性,实际蒸散发对温度变化的敏感性较强。与基准期相比,在气温同等条件、降水增加情景下,流域水资源量呈增加趋势;在降水同等条件、气温升高情景下,流域的实际蒸发会增加,导致水资源量呈减少的趋势。径流年内分配受降水变化影响较大;随着降水增加,径流年内分配更集中,加大年内径流分配差异,可能加大流域湖泊调蓄压力。

Climate change has caused re-allocation of water resources in the spatial and temporal pattern, leading to more frequent occurrence of extreme hydrological events.Based on the predictions to global and China climate change by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （ IPCC ） , the authors of this paper analyzed the evolutionary tendency of water resources in the basin above Hongze Lake under the condition of climate change by the method of setting incremental scene and using the climatological data of the years of 1990 to 2011 .The results show that the catchment runoff was sensitive to precipitation changes; the evaporation was relatively sensitive to temperature changes.Compared with the baseline period, in the scenario of increasing precipitation and the same temperature, the water resources in the basin will be in the tendency of increasing; in the scenario of the same precipitation and temperature rise, the actual evaporation in the basin will increase, causing the tendency of water resources decreasing;the annual distribution of runoff is greatly influenced by the change of precipitation; runoff annual distribution becomes more concentrated with the increase of precipitation, which may result in the increasing the difference of runoff annual distribution, and increasing the regulating pressure of Hongze Lake.