1961—2012年汾河流域降水量变化特征

Precipitation variation characteristics of Fenhe Basin from 1961 to 2012

基于汾河流域12个气象站1961—2012年降水资料,采用统计、线性倾向估计和Morlet子波分析等方法,对流域自然降水量变化特征进行了分析。结果表明:52年间,汾河流域降水量在波动中不断减少,1990年代后,减少速率加快,自然水资源短缺现象趋于严重,且变差系数大,表明流域年降水量年际变化大,降水匮乏,水资源利用价值较低。流域降水量的周期表现出多尺度特征,2010年代后开始进入丰水期。流域年和季节降水量的突变点及变化趋势表现出明显的季节气候特点。

Based on precipitation data from twelve weather stations in Fenhe Basin from 1961 to 2012, using statistical method, linear trend estimation, and Morlet wavelet analysis method to analyze variation characteristics of natural precipitation.Results show that the natural precipitation in Fenhe Basin has been continually reducing during the recent 52 years.Since the 1990s, the reducing rate has been increasing and shortage of water resource became more and more serious.Also, the coefficient of variation has been bigger than ever, which means the annual variation of precipitation over Fenhe Basin being too large, lacking in rain and water resource utilization of low value.The cycle of precipitation in Fenhe Basin has multi-scale characteristics.In the 2010s, the abundant water period started.The abrupt junction and variation trend of precipitation over years and seasons in Fenhe Basin plays apparent seasonal weather characteristics.