山东冬季冷暖年气候特征及其成因分析

Analysis of climatic characteristics and causes of the cold and warm winter in Shandong

利用1951—2013年山东122个气象观测站资料,分析山东冬季气温演变特征以及异常冷暖年相对应的大气环流异常。结果表明:山东冬季气温的年代际变化特征明显,冬季变暖的时间是从20世纪80年代中期开始,突变年为1986年;冬季异常冷暖年,乌拉尔山高压脊存在明显差异;在500 h Pa高度距平场上欧亚大陆呈反位相分布,异常冷年极强负距平中心位于贝加尔湖附近,山东处于负距平区底部;异常暖年,正距平中心位于巴尔喀什湖附近,山东处于正距平中。另据分析,冬季拉尼娜事件发生,和山东冬季气温偏冷有较好的关联性;并发现冬季气温与前期7月Nino3区海温正相关最好。

Based on the data of 122 weather stations in Shandong Province from 1951 to 2013, this study analyzed the feature of climatic change of winter air temperature and the atmospheric circulation anomalies of the abnormal cold and warm winter years. Results show that the winter air temperature is with obvious interdecadal variability; the warming trend has begun since the middle stage of 1980s, and the abrupt change of winter air temperature occurred in 1986. The ridge of the Ural Mountains has obvious difference in abnormal cold and warm winter years; and Eurasian anomaly field is in opposite phase distribution in 500hPa during the abnormal cold and warm winter years. The negative center is located near Lake Baikal, and Shandong is located at the bottom of height anomaly field in the abnormal cold winter years; the positive center is located near Balkhash Lake and Shandong is located in the positive height anomaly field in the abnormal warm winter years. According to analysis, the occurrence of La Nifia in winter is well correlated with the colder Shandong climate. The winter air temperature is most positively related with early July Nino3 sea temperature.