中日两国全面对撞关系的深层机制探析

A Tentative Analysis of the Mechanism of the Full-scaled Confrontation between China and Japan

近年来中日关系的持续恶化表明,两国关系正步入一个新阶段——一种全面对撞1的阶段。对于这种状况的分析,不能仅仅停留在东亚权力格局变迁或某个国家领袖观念和执政方式的改变上。这个地区的主要国家在格局变迁压力下国际战略的重新定位和中日两国的对立性民族情绪,同样扮演着重要角色。这意味着,格局、战略与文化三个变量共同推动了一种中日全面对撞关系的出现,构成中日对撞关系的深层机制。为此,要想改变这种局面,避免两国陷入敌对状态,就必须深入理解这个深层机制,并对之采取针对性措施,以保障东亚地区的稳定与发展。

The continual intense conflicts between Japan and China reflect that their relationship has been deteriorated into a wholly comprehensive confrontation, which is the result of the shifting power structure in the Asia-Pacific region, as well as the political leadership and pattern redefined by the main players. Fur- thermore, the reposition of major powers, the new international strategies, and the antagonistic nationalism between Japan and China do not only appear as a product of the conflicts, but also contributed largely to further confrontation, which make the long-term reconciliation far more difficult if not impossible. All these three aspects constitute the underlying dynamic mechanism of the development of the comprehensive Sino- Japan rivalry. Therefore, all the parties who look for a stable, peaceful and jointly prosperous East Asia shall cautiously deal with this mechanism and adopt more positive corresponding measures to improve the Si- no-Japan relationship.