不同类型毒品复吸间隔影响因素分析:以上海市戒毒所913名复吸者为例

Factors associated with relapse interval among different types of illicit drug users:a sample of 913 relapse drug users in Shanghai Drug Rehabilitation Center

目的:探究新型毒品、阿片类毒品以及混合使用海洛因和新型合成毒品的复吸间隔影响因素。方法:对上海市戒毒所913名复吸者进行问卷调查,将收集到的数据以毒品类型分为三类,以复吸间隔为因变量使用Ordinal Logistic回归分别进行回归分析,并使用前进法(Forward)对引入的变量进行筛选。为保证结果的稳健性,使用了不同的参考标准(P=0.1和P=0.05)以及多种筛选方法(后退法和逐步法)进行检验。结果:描述性统计结果表明不同类型的复吸者在年龄、吸毒时长和复吸间隔上有显著差异,回归分析的结果表明不同类型毒品复吸间隔的影响因素大相径庭,仅有收入状况横跨多个模型保持显著,其结果依不同参考标准和筛选方法均稳健。结论:对不同类型毒品而言,复吸间隔因素有所不同,但收入状况稳定地影响了复吸间隔长短,应当作为影响复吸间隔的重要因素予以关注。

Objective：Exploring the factors associated with relapse interval among traditional drug abusers,synthetic drug abusers and those who abuse both traditional and synthetic drug.Methods：Collapsing the dalaset into 3 subsets according to the types of drug,then run Ordinal Logistic regression for each of the 3 subsets while select the most significant variables via forward variable selection method.Robustness of the result will be discussed latter.Results;The Result of descriptive statistics indicates the age and history of drug abuse associate with relapse interval significantly,while the result of regression analysis indicates only 1 variable are significant across at least 2 different subsets.Conclusion：Only status of income affects the relapse interval robustly.Hence they shall be paid most attention and treated as they might be the key factors related to the interval between relapses.