中国住宅市场供给“追随”效应的研究

The Research on House Supply in China under the effect of Following Behavior

传统的经济学理论很难解释中国住宅市场中同时存在的高房价和高空置率问题,本文因此通过引入金融学中"信息瀑布"的视角,尝试从理论和实证上揭示中国住宅市场供给的特征。本文首先建立了一个不完全信息下的两期信号决策模型,阐释房地产开发商采取追随行为的动机和特点。在此理论基础上,本文利用动态面板模型,对中国住宅市场1999-2010年的数据进行分析,发现我国住宅开发商存在明显的追随行为,该行为可能已经导致了中国住宅市场的过度供给。另一方面,我们的研究通过分析追随行为和需求冲击的反馈机制也发现,我国住宅市场明显存在着有效供给不足的问题。这两者看似矛盾,但进一步研究发现,追随行为的不对称性,是导致我国住宅市场既存在过度供给又存在有效供给不足的重要原因之一。本文的发现,对理解当下中国住宅市场供需结构失衡的问题提供了新的视角。

It is difficult for traditional economic theories to investigate the co-existence problem of high price level and high vacancy rate of residential housing markets in China. Hence, this paper theoretically and empirically analyses the supply characteristics of Chinese residential housing markets by introducing the angle of Information Cascades. A two-period signal model under imperfect information is established to explore why and how developers follow each other in real estate development.With the data of Chinese residential housing markets from 1999 to 2010 as a sample, we find empirical evidence of following behavior in these markets, which possibly contributes to overbuilding. While the interaction between following behavior and demand shocks leads to the shortage of effective supply of these markets, we further find that it is the asymmetry of following behavior which causes both a surplus of ineffective supply and a shortage of effective supply, thus shedding new light on the problem of structure imbalance of supply and demand in Chinese residential housing markets.