混沌理论在电力系统负荷预测中应用综述

A Review of Chaos Theory in Power System Load Prediction

电力系统负荷的准确预测,对电力系统安全、高效运行有重要作用。负荷存在混沌特性,而基于混沌理论的预测较好地刻画了负荷物理属性,预测精度高。并主要介绍了混沌理论在负荷预测中的应用。首先,概述了基于混沌理论预测的机理,介绍了几种混沌特性判别的方法。然后,介绍了几种预测模型。最后,对现有预测模型总结和展望。

The accurate prediction of power system load has an important effect on the power system safe and efficient operation. Load is chaotic;prediction based on chaos theory better characterizes the physical properties of the load,with high prediction accuracy. The article describes the application of chaos theory in load forecasting. First,an overview of the mechanism of prediction based on chaos theory,describes several methods of identifying chaotic nature. Then,we introduce several forecasting models. Finally,we conclude the existing prediction model.