宏观政策对中国经济波动的影响模拟

A Simulation of the Effects of Macro-economic Policies on China's Economic Fluctuations

文章通过建立一个包含货币政策、具有自动稳定机制的财政政策、金融中介机构以及粘性价格、粘性工资等特性的新凯恩斯主义动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE),在校准模型结构参数的基础上,运用脉冲响应技术手段分析了财政政策、货币政策以及贷款、消费偏好等8个外生随机冲击对我国经济波动的影响。研究发现:货币供应量、消费偏好和政府购买支出等冲击均导致我国经济上升,即产出和通货膨胀均上升,贷款和技术冲击导致产出增加而通货膨胀下降,投资调整成本冲击导致产出和通货膨胀均下降,价格加成和工资加成冲击均导致产出下降、通货膨胀上升;货币供应量、技术和投资调整成本冲击是我国经济波动的主要来源,财政政策对中国经济波动的影响相对较小。

This paper constructs a New-Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model （DSGE） , which characterized by monetary policy, self-adjusting fiscal policy, financial intermediary, sticky wages and prices etc. and then simulates the impacts of eight exogenous stochastic shocks such as fiscal and monetary policies, credit and consumption preference etc. on China＇s economic fluctuations by employing impulse response on the basis of parameters calibration. The findings are as follow：the shock of money supply, consumption preference and government expenditure all have positive effects on Chinese economy, driving output and inflation to increase, the shock of credit and technology drive output to increase and inflation to decrease, the shock of investment adjustment cost has negative effect on output and inflation, the shock of price and wage mark-up decrease output and increase inflation;the shock of money supply, technology and investment adjustment cost are the main sources of China＇s economic fluctuations, however, the effect of fiscal policy on China＇s economic fluctuation is relatively limited.