中国上市银行信贷行为的周期性研究

The Cyclicality of Bank Lending Behavior based on the Evidence from Chinese Listed Banks

文章基于中国上市银行1998-2013年的数据,采用固定效应模型,对16家中国上市银行信贷行为的周期性进行了研究。研究表明,中国上市银行的信贷行为表现为阶段顺周期性和阶段逆周期性;银行规模对其周期性也有较大影响,规模较小银行或同一银行在规模较小阶段其信贷的逆周期性更显著。由于当前我国政府对宏观经济及银行行为的干预程度较大,银行监管当局所制定监管政策的针对性及有效性将受到很大削弱,因此文章建议政府的宏观经济调控政策与银行的监管政策必须相互协调,这是未来防范经济危机与金融危机,促进中国经济健康持续发展,保持中国金融系统稳健经营的必然选择。

This paper studies the credit cyclicality of Chines＇s listed banks based on the listed banks data from 1998 to 2013 by using fixed effects model. The empirical results show there is phases pro-cyclicality and phases counter-cyclicality of the listed banks＇ lending supply, and there is significant effect between the size of bank and periodicity. Due to the Chinese government intervenes macroeconomic and bank management frequently. The intervention measures will weaken the policy effects of the bank regulatory authority. This paper suggests Chinese government and bank regulatory authority should coordinate with each other on policies making. The coordination will be benefit to prevent economic and financial crisis, promote China＇s economic and financial system health and sustainable development.