江苏省启东市1972-2011年直肠癌发病趋势分析

Analysis on the Incidence Trend of Rectal Carcinoma from 1972 to 2011 in Qidong City of Jiangsu Province

为了研究江苏省启东市1972～2011年直肠癌发病变化趋势，为制定直肠癌预防控制措施与策略提供依据，本研究采用启东市1972～2011年癌症发病登记数据库，计算直肠癌的粗发病率（CR）、中国人口标化发病率（CASR）、世界人口标化发病率（WASR）及其变化百分比（PC）和年度变化百分比（APC），并对直肠癌发病率进行时间趋势检验。结果显示，1972～2011年启东市直肠癌发病3925例，CR、CASR和WASR分别为8．73／10万、4．02／10万和6．37／10万。其中男性直肠癌发病1924例，CR、CASR和wASR分别为8．67／10万、4．27／10万和6．86／10万，女性直肠癌发病2001例，CR、CASR和WASR分别为8．SO／10万、3．81／10万和5．97／10万。40年间直肠癌发病的CR、CASR、WASR的PC分别为335．89％、54．69％与71．92％，APC分别为5．00％（t=12．924，P=0．000）、2．10％（t=5．823，P=0．000）、2．36oA（t=6．132，P=0．000）。结果表明，启东市40年来直肠癌发病率有明显上升趋势，应引起重视。

In order to investigate the incidence change trend of rectal carcinoma from 1972 to 2011 in Qi-dong city of Jiangsu province,and to provide the basis for developing the measures and tactics about pre- vention control of rectal carcinoma, this study through the data bank on registered cancer incidence from 1972 to 2011 in Qidong city calculated rectal carcinoma＇s crude incidence rate（CR）, age-standardized inci- dence rate by China （CASR）, age-standardized incidence rate by world （WASR）, percentage change （PC） and annual percentage change （APC）, and done the Time-trend test of rectal carcinoma incidence. As re- sults,at that duration total diseased number was 3925 cases^CR,CASR and WASR was 8.73/105 ,4.02/105 and 6.37/105 ,respectively,which male patients were 1924 cases,their CR,CASR and WASR was 8.67/105 , 4.27/105 and 6.86/105 ,respectively,while female ones,2001 cases,8.80/105 ,3.81/105 and 5.97/105 respec- tively.within 40 years the PC of CR,CASR and WASR was 335.89% ,54.69% and 71.92% ;APC of CR, CASR and WASR was 5.00%（ t =12.924, P =0.000）,2.10% （ t =5.823, P =0.000） and 2.36%（ t = 6.132, P =0.000）, respectively.Results show that in Qidong city the incidence of rectal carcinoma within 40 years has significant increasing trend which should be noticed greatly.