实施巴塞尔协议Ⅲ对中国宏观经济的影响分析

The Macroeconomic Impact of Basel Ⅲ in China

巴塞尔协议Ⅲ对商业银行的资本监管要求进一步提高,其一般会导致银行信贷紧缩,引发经济衰退。本文在系统梳理本次金融危机后国际金融监管改革主要举措的基础上,通过构建理论模型分析了金融危机期间资本监管要求提高对银行信贷从而对宏观经济产生影响的机制,并实证评估了巴塞尔协议Ⅲ在中国实施的宏观经济影响。研究发现:虽然巴塞尔协议Ⅲ实施对中国宏观经济的影响在短期内是温和的,但长期影响仍然不可小觑;各国银行由于资本充足率方面的先天不同,监管变革对各国信贷和宏观经济影响的成本不同,导致各国当局采用新资本监管要求的激励不同。

The bank capital requirement will be high in Basel III Accord and which will gen- erally lead to bank credit contraction and economic decline. In this paper, based on the re- forms initiatives of international financial regulation aftermath, we build a theoretical model to analyze the effect of bank capital requirement on bank credit and the macroeconomic im- pact. Sequentially we assess the applicability of the new regulation rule and its potential conse- quences on Chinese economy and its financial system, measures the impact on the Chinese macro economy of Basel IU since its implementation in China. We found that the long-term effects should not be slighted despite the moderate influence of Basel Ⅲ on Chinese economy in the short run. And because of the difference of bank capital sufficiency in each country, the cost of bank regulation reform to the macroeconomic impact is different, and which lead to the different incentive of the regulator in using the new capital accord.