基于ETA和FTA的输油管道泄漏公共安全事件演化分析

Analysis of Oil Pipeline Leakage Public Safety Incident Evolution Based on ETA and FTA

目前城市输油管道泄漏事故频发,青岛"11.22"中石化东黄输油管道泄漏爆炸事故发人深省。结合该事故的调研结果,运用事件树和事故树分析方法对输油管道泄漏导致公共安全事件的演化过程、路径与发生概率进行分析。研究结果表明:输油管道泄漏不管燃爆与否导致环境污染的概率最高;燃爆概率远低于不发生燃爆概率;由于不发生燃爆而导致环境污染引起的社会骚乱概率最高;"11.22"事故是沿着最高发生概率事件路径演化的,是可以预料的事故。

At present, the city pipeline leakage accidents occur frequently, and Qingdao ＂11.22＂ Sinopec Dong Huang oil pipeline explosion accident is thought-provoking. Combined with the research results of the accident, the article uses the Event Tree and Fault Tree to analyze the evolution process and path and probability of the pipeline leak public safety incident. The results show that： whether the explosion happens or not, the probability of environment pollution is the highest caused by the oil pipeline leakage; the probability of explosion is much lower than the probability of non-explosion; the probability of social unrest caused by the environment pollution without explosion is the highest; the evolution of＂11.22＂ accident is along the occurrence of the highest probability accident, not an incalculable accident.