转型经济体的巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应

On Balassa-Samuelson Effect of Transition Economies

在总结巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应理论和相关研究成果的基础上,通过时间序列折线图的初步直观描述,再运用面板数据协整检验方法,对12个高增长的转型经济体样本期间的实际汇率与相对人均产出序列是否存在协整关系进行了实证检验。检验结果显示,样本期实际汇率与相对人均产出之间的协整关系成立。这表明,实现经济转型后的高增长转型经济体的实际汇率与相对人均产出之间存在着稳定的内在关联关系,其实际汇率基本变动趋势可由相对生产率的变动所解释。

Firstly, we make an explanation for the declining trend of the real exchange rate in the transition process of transition economies, and make an assumption that the behavior of the real exchange rate of transition economies will follow Balassa-Samuelson effect after economy transition. Then, we test the co integration relationship between real exchange rate and relative per capita products in sample period for 12 highly growing transition economies by panel data co integration method. Our test results indicate that there is stable co integration between real exchange and relative per capita products, and the fundamental move of real exchange rate can be explained by the move of relative per capita products.