基于能源平衡表的碳排放清单核算不确定性分析

Analysis On the Uncertainty of Carbon Emission Accounting Based on Energy Balance Sheet

以天津市为例探讨利用能源平衡表核算CO2的方法,并通过建立方程分析热值、含碳量、碳氧化率和电力排放因子对于天津市CO2排放总量的影响。结果表明,热值、含碳量、碳氧化率的变动对于CO2排放总量的计算有着重大的影响,而电力排放因子的影响不大。因此在不考虑电力排放因子的前提下,计算天津市CO2排放总量在-8.74%~53.29%之间变动,并以三个发电企业为例,分析了热值、含碳量、碳氧化率等取实测值与取缺省值对计算CO2排放量的影响。因此,要想依据能源平衡表获得准确的排放数据,首先必须对能源平衡表进行调整,其次就是根据具体地域差异,确定权威的排放因子。

This article takes Tianjin as an example to discuss the CO2 emissions accounting method with energy balance sheet. Through setting up equation,this paper analyzes the calorific value, carbon content, carbon oxidation rate and power emission factors influence on the total amount of CO2 emissions. The result shows that the changes of the former three factors have a great influence on the calculation of CO2 emissions, but the last one affects little. Without considering the emission factor of electric power, the maximum and minimum of CO2 emissions in Tianjin fluctuated between -8.74% and 53.84%. Then three power companies have been taken as an example to illustrate the influence of the calculation amount of CO2 emissions by using measured values and default values. In accordance with energy balance sheet to obtain accurate CO2 emissions data, the sheet has to be changed at first and the authoritative emission factors have to be identified according to the regional differences.