中国南北地区生活消费人均碳排放影响因素比较——基于空间计量分析

Comparison of Consumption Per Capita Carbon Emission Factors between China North and South Regions: Based on Spatial Econometrics Analysis

基于中国集中供暖线和Moran I指数图将我国省域划分成南、北两个区域,通过建立空间计量模型,对影响生活消费的人均碳排放量影响因素及影响大小进行定量分析。同时根据Kaya恒等式及现有文献将驱动因素分解成能源结构、能源利用率、居民生活水平三个因素,外加可能对碳排放有影响区域人口密度。结果表明:能源结构和居民生活水平分别是影响南北方地区生活碳排放的主要因素。南方地区的空间效应显著而北方不显著,所以优化居民能源消费结构,采取地区空间联动性的合作治理对减少南方地区生活消费人均碳排放量具有十分重要的作用。而对于北方地区则应把政策重心放在协调居民生活水平和人均碳排放量上,优化地区环境库兹涅茨曲线。

Based on the heating wire concentrated in China and Moran I index, China＇s provincial map will be divided into North and south areas, through the establishment of spatial econometric models, the paper quantitatively analyzes the influence on living consumption per capita carbon emission effects and the size of the influencing factors. At the same time, according to the Kaya identity, the existing literature, the paper divides the driving factor into three groups： the energy structure, energy utilization ratio, and the living standards of residents. And the regional population density may have effects on carbon emissions as well. The results show that： the energy structure and the living standards of residents are main factors affecting the life of the South and the north area of carbon emissions. So the optimization of residents consumption structure of energy, and adopting the cooperation governance area spatial linkage play a very important role in reducing the south area of life consumption per capita carbon emissions. And for the north area we should take the policy to focus on the coordination of the living standards of residents and the per capita emissions, and optimizing the regional environmental Kuznets curve.