中国中高速增长的区间、条件和政策选择

The range,conditions and policy choices of china's mid- to- high speed growth

美欧日经济增长的长期趋势表明,经济高速增长之后的增长速度下移是自然现象,经济结构调整是适应经济增速下移的必然要求。目前中国经济发展进入新常态,从高速增长转向中高速增长也是顺应经济发展规律的自然现象。中国当前的主要宏观经济指标优于中高速增长经济体的对应指标。中国有条件、有潜力保持中高速经济增长,中国即将进入中高速增长与中上等收入相匹配的新常态,勿需过分担忧落入中等收入陷阱的风险。在经济增速换档期,伴随着经济增速下移产生了一些问题,因而中国需要平衡"调结构"与"稳增长"的关系。中国应坚持以转变经济发展方式为主线,以"调结构"为着力点,释放改革开放的红利,统筹考虑"稳增长""调结构""促改革",发挥好市场机制的作用,增强经济发展的活力和内生动力,防范经济增速过于快速下滑的风险。

Long- term trends of economic grow th of the US,Europe and Japan show that the slow- dow n of grow th speed after the high- speed grow th of economy is a natural phenomenon,the adjustment of economic structure is an inevitable requirement of the slow dow n of economic grow th. The economic development of China has come into the new normal situation,and the sw itch from rapid grow th to mid- to- highspeed grow th is also a natural phenomenon that complys w ith the economic development law.China's current main macroeconomic indicators are superior to the corresponding indexs of the mid- to-high speed grow ing economies. China has the condition and potential to maintain a rapid economic grow th and is now going to enter the new normal situation matched by mid- to- high speed grow th and upper- middle income,so there is no need to w orry about the risk falling into the middle- income trap.In the shifting phase of economic grow th speed,some problems appear along w ith the slow dow n of economic grow th. China needs to balance the relations betw een 'adjusting the structure'and 'stabilizing the grow th'. China should adhere to the transformation of economic development pattern as the mainline and focus on the policy of 'adjusting the structure',release dividends of the reform and opening- up policy and comprehensively consider the policy of 'stabilizing the grow th','adjusting the structure'and'advancing the reform',give full scope to market mechanism,strengthen the development vitality and the endogenous pow er,and prevent rapid decline of economic grow th.