基于马尔科夫链的人口高密度地区强震人员伤亡预测方法

Markov-chain-based Model for Predicting Casualties During Strong Earthquakes of High Population Density Areas

近年来,世界上爆发了多起非常规突发事件,关于此类事件的应急救援是一个亟待解决的问题。文章首先介绍了马尔科夫链的基本知识,其次以此构建了面向人口高密度地区强震人员伤亡的预测方法,采用一个算例进行了仿真计算。研究结果进一步验证了该方法的实用性,对于应急管理具有重要的决策参考价值。

In recent years, the world broke out several unconventional emergencies. Emergency rescue for this kind incidents is an urgent problem to be solved. This paper firstly introduces the basic knowledge of the markov-chain, then constructs a markov-based method for predicting strong earthquake casualties of high population density area. An simulation example is used for calculating demonstration.Results further verified the practicability of the method. This prediction method has an important reference value for the decision-making of emergency management.