灰色理论在我国钢产量与GDP增长关系中的应用研究

The practice research between steel production and the GDP in our country based on the grey theory

为了探讨我国钢产量与GDP的增长关系,在收集1949-2012年我国钢产量和GDP数据的基础上,运用灰色关联度矩阵理论,得到了我国5个经济发展阶段的时差延迟灰色关联度.在第1和第2个发展阶段,我国的GDP和钢产量同步发展;即当年就推动了国民经济的发展,具有立竿见影的效果.在第3、4、5个发展阶段,从r0—r4,数值逐渐增大.说明在经济发展转型一直到市场经济全面发展后,我国钢铁工业对国民经济的推动作用具有明显的滞后性和长效推动作用.最后,运用灰色DGM(2,1)模型,对我国的钢产量进行了科学的预测.结果显示,今后5年内,我国的钢产量将呈现出明显的指数增长态势.

Through collect the steel production and GDP at 1949- 2012 in China,By means of grey theory,pass through compute the matrix of grey incidence degree,obtain the grey delay incidence degree in the 5 stage of our economy development. In the first and the second stage,our GDP and the steel production are coordinate development. It promote the economy at the same year. In the third to fifth stage of our economy development. since r0—r4,The numerical value is getting increase. The results show that the promote in the steel industry to the economy development is tardy and delay since the economy change direction stage to the market economy stage. The last,It forecast the steel production used the grey theory model. The results show that the steel production is index number increasing.