基于层次分析的武器系统发射阵地风险评估

Risk Evaluation of Weapon System Launching Position Based on AHP

为降低武器系统发射风险,针对发射阵地上的设施、装备、人员、组织、管理、阵地环境等多方面因素进行综合性风险性评估。提出了发射风险评估与处置的方法,介绍风险的识别与评价。在分析发射阵各类风险的基础上,按层次分析法对存在的风险进行规划分类,并对基层风险进行权重排序,根据比较历史记录估计相应风险发生概率及危险程度值,并进行风险评估计算。

In order to reduce the risk of weapon system launching, the risk was evaluated comprehensively by analyzing ev- ery elements including the facilities, equipment, worker, organization, management and environment.The method of launch- ing risk of evaluation and management, and how to recognize and estimate was introduced. Based on analyzing every ele- ments of risk, the risks were classified and the basic risk right was ordered. At last, the corresponding value was evaluatesd by comparing past records and calculates.