时滞差分模型与剩余产量模型的应用比较--以南大西洋长鳍金枪鱼为例

Comparison of delay difference model and surplus production model applied to albacore( Thunnus alalunga) in the South Atlantic Ocean

将剩余产量模型和时滞差分模型分别应用于南大西洋长鳍金枪鱼（Thunnus alalunga）渔业数据,结果表明,比起剩余产量模型,时滞差分模型拟合的单位捕捞努力渔获量（catch per unit effort,CPUE）曲线能够更好地捕捉到CPUE随着时间的波动。赤池信息量准则（Akaike information criterion,AIC）的结果显示,时滞差分模型比Schaefer模型的评估效果要好。时滞差分模型评估的最大可持续产量（maximum sustainable yield,MSY）中值为22 490 t,80%置信区间为21 756~23 408 t;剩余产量模型评估的MSY中值为27 520 t,80%的置信区间为26 116~28 959 t。生物学参考点的结果表明目标群体在1985年以前资源状态较好;1985年~2005年的20年里处于过度捕捞状态;2005年后资源状况得到改善,但仍需加强管理。比起剩余产量模型,时滞差分模型给出了更为有效且保守的评估结果。

We applied surplus production model and delay difference model to analyze the data of the southern Atlantic albacore （ Thunnus alalunga） stock. Results show that the delay difference model captured annual fluctuation of catch per unit effort （ CPUE ） better than the Schaefer model. Akaike information criterion （AIC） also reveals that delay difference model performed better. We cal- culated an 80% percentile confidence interval of maximum sustainable yield （MSY） of 21 756 - 23 408 t （ median 22 490 t） and 26 116-28 959 t （median 27 520 t） by delay difference model and Schaefer model, respectively. Results of biological reference points show that the southern Atlantic albacore stock was in a good state before 1985 but had been overfished from 1985 to 2005 ; after that, it was rebuilt gradually but must be taken care of. The delay difference model gave more effective and conservative results than the surplus production model.