摘要
基于1984—2012年中国苹果生产及气候面板数据,从大区和省区两个层面考察了苹果生产区域格局变化的趋势,指出近三十年来,中国苹果主产区出现了由东向西、向西北黄土高原及新疆地区迁移的现象,且随着气温变暖,各省苹果种植边界逐渐北移。利用基于蛛网模型的空间面板计量模型分析了气候变化对中国苹果生产空间布局的影响,结果显示,气温对苹果生产布局的变迁有正的影响,而日照时数和受灾面积则呈负的影响;苹果生产存在显著的正空间溢出效应;非农机会、比较收益、技术进步和政策等因素对生产布局也有影响。
The trend of Chinese provincial apple structure variation was analyzed based on the panel data of provincial apple production in China from 1984 to 2012 both on the region and province level, which finds that apple production areas have gradually transferred from east to west, western Loess Plateau and Sinkiang, the apple planting borders of major production provinces also gradually northward with the climate warming. Then effects of climate change to the variation were studied using spatial econometrics model based on the Nerlove model. The empirical results show that： temperature has positive effect to Chinese apple production layout, while sunshine hours and natural hazard have negative effects; apple producing has significantly positive spatial spillover effects; non-agricultural opportunities, compared benefits, technological progress and related policy also have effects.
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第6期130-137,共8页
Economic Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71303188)
教育部人文社会科学基金项目(11YJC630003)
国家现代农业产业技术体系建设项目(20080107003)
中央高校基本科研业务费(QN2012050)
关键词
气候变化
生产布局
空间溢出效应
空间计量经济模型
苹果
climate change
production layout
spatial spillover effect
spatial econometrics model
apple
