中国农业保险区域差异的变动及成因解释——基于Shapley值分解方法

Changes and causes of regional differences of Chinese agricultural insurance:Based on Shapley value decomposition

基于2004—2012年的省际面板数据,利用基尼(Gini)系数测算农业保险的区域差异,并运用Shapley值分解方法对影响区域差异的因素进行分解并测度出各类因素对区域差异的贡献度。结果表明:1)2004—2012年,表征农业保险区域差异的Gini系数均值高达0.64,明显高于公认的警戒水平,但呈现收敛趋势,Gini系数最低的2012年已降至0.47。2)区域差异的50.59%来自地区农村经济发展差异的贡献,地区的社会环境及保险市场差异也是形成区域差异的重要动因,贡献率分别达到26.06%和20.78%,地区固有因素贡献最小仅为2.58%。因此,要将努力缩小地区农村经济发展差距作为破解区域差异过大的主要抓手。与此同时,重视地区间农村教育、科技和社会保障水平的发展差异及地区间保险市场发展差异也应作为缩小区域差异的重要手段。此外,对于发展相对滞后的地区,还要注重发挥后发优势,吸收、借鉴发达地区的经验与教训,主动利用政策倾斜等手段吸引农业保险公司进入并开发地区市场,积极运用培训、宣传手段提升农民的风险与保险意识等。

On the basis of the provincial panel data during 2004 - 2012,the Gini coefficient was used to calculate the regional differences of agricultural insurance, and taking use of the Shapley value decomposition method, the factors affecting the regional differences were decomposed and their contribution degree to the differences was calculated. The results showed from the following two aspects, 1） During the years from 2004 to 2012, the mean of the Gini coefficient representing regional differences of agricultural insurance was as high as 0. 64, which was absolutely above the accepted alert level,but showing a convergent trend. In 2012, the Gini coefficient reached the lowest level of 0.47. 2） 50.59% of the regional differences resulted from regional differences in rural economic development level, and 26.06% from regional differences in social environment and 20.78% from regional differences in insurance market development level. Regional inherent factor contributed the least of 2.58% to the regional differences. Therefore, the task of narrowing economic development level gaps among rural regions should be put in the first place when resolving the problem of big regional differences. Meanwhile, the regional differences in rural education level, science level and social insurance level as well as the insurance market development level should also be taken into account when resolving the problem. Besides,as for those regions lagging behind, making use of the late-mover advantage to draw lessons from the experiences of the developed regions should be considered, the advantages of the preferential policies should be taken to attract agricultural insurance companies to enter and develop regional markets,and methods such as training and advertisement should be used to improve famers＇ awareness of risk and insurance.