步入“新常态”的工业经济运行:发展特征与未来趋势

China Industrial Economic Goes Forward Steadily under the New Normal

2014年中国工业经济增速调整下行,但产业结构调整取得了积极进展,增长动力机制逐步走向内生平衡增长。2015年国内外的不确定性因素将进一步增加,工业经济处于"三期叠加"影响的集中体现期,工业经济增长依然面临较大压力。在这种情况下,"稳中求胜"应成为中国工业发展的基本要求,在保持工业经济稳定增长的同时,更加强调在改革上取得重大突破。考虑到工业经济潜在产出增长率、经济系统稳定、长期成本和短期成本等多重因素,预计2015年全年规模以上工业企业增加值增速将下滑到8.0%左右。国家在制定政策时,应将长期政策和短期政策、宏观政策与中观政策、供给管理与需求管理结合起来,打出政策"组合拳",既重视政策的稳定性,也重视政策的灵活性。

In 2014, China industrial economic growth rate goes down, but the adjustment of industrial structure makes big progress, and the dynamics of industrial economic become more balanced. With the uncertainty factors at home and abroad increasing and the influence of ＂three period superposition＂ turning up intensively, China industrial economic growth will face more difficulties in 2015. Winning victory in reformation while maintaining stability will be the basic objective of China industrial economic development. Considering the potential growth rate, the stability of economic system, and the coordination of long-run cost^and short-run cost, we estimate that the growth rate of China industrial economic will turn down to 8.0% in 2015. Policy mix of long-run policies and short-run policies, macro policy and industrial policy, and supply policy and demand policy, should be put forward. Both the policy stability and policy flexibility should be taken in account.