公共债务扩张的宏观经济效应:理论演变与美国例证

Macroeconomic Effect of Public Debt Expansion: Theoretic Evolution and Example Illustration of the United States

通过研究美国公共债务扩张对经济增长、私人投资、物价水平的影响得出以下结论:第一,公共债务的扩张对美国短期经济稳定具有积极的作用,但不利于经济长期发展,并且会导致经济增长波动加剧。第二,由于美国财政支出主要投向公共产品领域,所以公共债务的增加对私人投资具有积极的促进作用,但投资波动会加大。第三,从静态关系看,公共债务扩张会导致美国物价上涨,但从动态关系看,由于美元的国际地位,债务上升导致的通胀压力可以很快得以化解,物价的波动与公共债务扩张的关系不显著。在此基础上,结合当前理论发展与实证结果,提出了对中国公共债务发展的几点启示与建议。

Through the research of the public debt of the United States expansion to economic growth, private investment, the price level and reached the following conclusions： first, the expansion of public debt has a positive effect on the short-term economic stabilization, but is not conducive to long-term economic development, and will lead to economic growth and volatility. Second, the United States financial expenditure mainly to the public products, so the increase in public debt, which plays a positive role in promoting private investment, but the investment volatility will increase. Third, from the static perspective, the expansion of American public debt will lead price increases. But from the dynamic relations, due to the dollar＇ s international status, debt rises in inflation pressure can be quickly resolved, and the relationship between price volatility and public debt is not significant. On this basis, the paper combines with the current development of theory and empirical results, and puts forward some suggestions on the development of China＇s public debt.