长江中游城市群产业集聚与经济增长的实证研究——基于动态面板GMM估计的分析

Empirical Study on the Relationship between Agglomeration and Economic Growth in Urban Agglomeration in the Middle Reaches of Yangtze River: Based on Dynamic Panel GMM Analysis

产业集聚与经济增长是一个相伴相生的过程,产业集聚在带来正外部性的同时,也可能产生拥塞效应。基于理论上的可能性,文章提出产业集聚与经济增长存在非线性关系,并利用长江中游城市群2006—2011年工业数据,采用动态面板GMM估计的分析方法对产业集聚与经济增长的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明,整体上工业集聚与经济增长呈现倒U型关系,但是对产业进一步分类后发现,资源密集型产业的集聚与经济增长存在倒U型关系,劳动密集型、资本密集型和技术密集型产业的集聚与经济增长存在U型关系。据此,政府应该根据行业特性和产业集聚效应的差异,优化调整产业结构,以利于集聚的可持续发展和产业的健康成长,增强城市群的竞争力。

Industrial agglomeration and economic growth always go together. Agglomeration brings positive externalities to economy, and it may also generates congestion effect at the same time. Based on theoretical possibility, this paper proposes nonlinear relationship between industrial agglomeration and economic growth, and introduces the GMM estimation on the relationship by using industrial data of urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of Yangtze river from 2006 to 2011. Regression results show that the overall relationship between industrial agglomeration and economic growth presents inverted U-shape. However, when we classify the industry into four parts, the results change. To be specific, resource-intensive industries present inverted U-shape, but labor-intensive, capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries present U-shape. In order to maintain the sustainable development of agglomeration and industrial healthy growth, and to enhance the competitiveness of urban agglomeration, governments should adjust and optimize the industrial structure based on the differences of industry characteristics and agglomeration effect.