日本城镇化快速发展阶段的整体态势与地区差异

The Unitary Characteristics and Regional Differences of Fast Urbanization Stage in Japan

整理1898—2000年日本及其都道府县城镇化相关数据,使用SPSS统计软件非线性回归程序拟合出各自城镇化水平Logistic发展模型,根据诺瑟姆城镇化发展三阶段理论思想及相关研究进展,对结果进行分析讨论,给中国城镇化发展以借鉴。研究发现,日本城镇化快速发展阶段始于1920年代,于1970年代进入城镇化发展的第三阶段,与工业化进程及产业结构的提升有着密切联系;各都道府县城镇化发展差异显著,第二阶段起步晚的地区,在该阶段的历时短、平均速度快,但起步早的地区有更强的集聚力量,城镇化水平饱和值更高。

According to Northam＇s urbanization theory and its recent progress, the paper deals with the data of urbanization of Japan and also those of its prefectures to gain their Logistic Growth models by nonlinear regression function of SPSS. Along with the development of industrialization, the Japanese urbanization started its second stage in 1920s and ended in 1970s. Regions starting second urbanization stage in later year would have faster speed of urbanization and last shorter in time during the stage; nevertheless, regions starting second urbanization stage in earlier year would have stronger power of convergence and higher upper limit level of urbanization,