银行业资本监管与中国经济增长关系研究

Study on the Relatioanship Between Capital Regulation of Banking Industry and Economic Growth in China

资本监管是银行业实施宏观审慎监管的核心内容，而银行资本在维持稳健经营和承担风险方面发挥着重要的作用。银行信贷构成了实体投资的主要来源，银行信贷规模变动带来的负面影响可能会造成经济的波动，侵害宏观经济增长。对我国银行业2003～2012年的情况进行的实证研究表明：监管压力增大会导致资本不足，银行信贷规模减少，当期监管压力值对当期信贷规模的作用比滞后一期监管压力值对当期信贷规模的作用更大一些。信贷规模对GDP的冲击效应是正向的。银行业资本监管压力对经济增长有一定的负面影响，但这种效应一般持续8个季度，这种负面影响在经济衰退时期表现得更为显著。

Banking capital regulation is the core content of macro-prudential regulation in banking. Banking capital plays a very important role in maintaining business stability and control- ling risks. The main source of investment is banking credit, therefore, the changes of banking credit scale may cause negative effects on economy and harm the economic growth. The article does an empirical research on the banking and the economy as well with the data of year 2003 to 2012 in China to analyze the effect on the economy more accurately, the empirical results show three conclusions：the more strict the banking capital regulation is, the less credit scale the under- capitalised bank has. The impact on the current credit scale of the current banking regulatory pressure is larger than the lagged banking regulatory pressure. The impact of the credit to GDP is positive. Banking capital regulation has more significant negative influence during economic reces- sion on the economic growth, and this effect lasts eight quarters. Finally, the article puts for- ward some suggestions of Bank regulation in order to adapt to the economic new normal behavior.