中国服务贸易与第三产业的比较优势的演进研究

A Study of the Development of the Comparative Advantages of Chinese Service Trade and Tertiary Industry

当今世界，服务业的发展状况俨然已成为一个国家经济发达程度的重要衡量指标。对第三产业乃至整个社会的经济发展而言，服务贸易的飞速发展必将为其注入新的活力。本文研究的是中国服务贸易进出口和第三产业之间的相互关系。利用1982～2012年度数据进行的实证研究结果表明：无论在短期还是在长期内，服务贸易的出口都能促进第三产业的发展；而服务贸易的进口在短期内对第三产业比较优势具有负效应，但长期效应却为正；服务贸易进口与出口在长短期都具有相互促进的正效应；第三产业比较优势短期内增加服务贸易出口比较优势，长期内却没有显著效应。本研究试图为我国服务贸易和第三产业的发展提供借鉴。

Since the development of the service sector has become an important measure of a nation＇ s economic development level nowadays, the rapid development of the service trade is supposed to provide impetus for the development of the tertiary industry and the whole economy. This paper focuses on the relationship between imports and exports of trade in service and the tertiary industry. The results of data analysis for the 1982-2012 research shows ： exports of trade in service would promote the development of the tertiary industry both in the short and long term; the imports of trade in service has a negative effect on tertiary industry in the short term, but the long-term effect is positive;imports and exports of trade in service have positive effects mutually;the comparative advantage of the tertiary industry increased the advantage of exports of trade in service in the short term, but there has been no significant effect in the long term. This study attempts to provide references for the development of service trade and the tertiary industry in our country.