企业物流需求情报分析预测方法与实证研究

Enterprise Logistics Demand Intelligence Analysis Prediction Method and Empirical Research

物流需求情报关系到物流企业资源最优配置,建立精确的物流需求情报预测模型是物流需求情报预测的关键。为提升企业物流需求情报预测的精确度,本文构建了基于离差平方和最小的物流需求趋势组合预测模型,并对物流需求组合预测中最主要的组合权重给出了统一的计算公式。最后通过实例分析了某电商企业的物流配送需求预测,仿真结果显示,基于组合预测的物流需求模型预测精度比单一预测模型的预测精度至少高93%,验证了本文所建立的物流需求预测方法的有效性和合理性,并据此提出物流企业的发展对策。

Logistics demand forecasting to strengthen logistics enterprise resource optimal allocation play an important role, establish precise logistics demand forecasting model is the precondition of logistics en- terprise resource allocation decisions. In this article, through the analysis of logistics demand forecasting model, constructed the logistics demand based on the minimum sum of squared residuals from trend com- bination forecast model, the logistics demand is the main combination weights in combination forecast uni- fied calculating formula is given. Finally analyzes the some electric business enterprise logistics demand forecasting, the simulation results show that the model based on combined forecasting logistics demand forecasting accuracy is higher than single forecasting model prediction accuracy of at least 93%, this pa- per established the logistics demand forecasting method is proved the validity and rationality, and then put forward countermeasures of logistics enterprises.