产城融合视角下工业园区发展规模预测与分析

通过回顾国内外产城融合的相关文献,运用耦合系统模型,对南昌经开区、南昌小蓝开发区和南昌高新区工业化与城镇化的耦合关联度和耦合发展度进行测定,以南昌高新区2006-2012年主要经济指标为样本,运用灰色预测模型对拟建的龚杏产业城经济规模进行预测。分析发现,高新技术型园区产城融合的关联度和发展度优于综合型园区。因此,拟建的龚杏产业城将以高新技术型园区为发展方向,在促进产业集聚和经济效益的同时注重基础配套服务设施建设,建设产城融合的新型园区。

This paper reviewed the domestic and foreign literatures on city- industry integration firstly. Then we used the coupling system model to calculate the coupling correlation degree and coupling development degree of industrialization and urbaniza- tion of three major parks in Jiangxi Province, including the Economic and Technological Development Zone, Xiaolan De- velopment Zone and High - tech Development Zone in Nanchang, so as to definite the development stage of city - industry integration in Jiangxi industrial parks. At last, we took the major economic indicators of Nanchang High -tech Develop- ment Zone from 2006 to 2012 as samples to forecast the economic scale of Gongxing Industry City by the Grey Forecasting Model. The analysis found that the correlation degrees and development degrees of city - industry integration of high - tech parks are better than that of the comprehensive park, and therefore, the Gongxing Industry City should choose the develop- ment direction of high - tech zone in the future, while promoting industrial agglomeration and economic benefits, paying at- tention to the basic service facilities as to become a city - industry integration park.