摘要
提出了江苏在未来40年经济背景预测方案,运用较为先进的"协整理论",筛选能与电量需求建立均衡关系的关键经济变量;构建了关键经济变量与电量需求之间的计量经济学模型,并对江苏省经济结构转型期的电力需求走势进行预测与校验。
In this paper, the forecast method for the electricity demand in future 40 years in Jiangsu Province is proposed. According to the Co-integration Theory, the key economic factors are selected for the construction of the econometric model to describe the balanced relationship between the economic development and electricity demands. Finally this model is utilized to forecast and verify the proposed method.
出处
《江苏电机工程》
2015年第3期49-51,共3页
Jiangsu Electrical Engineering
关键词
经济
电量需求
轨迹
协整
预测
economic
electricity-demand
increasing trajectory
co-integration theory
forecast
