中国城镇化区域差异的原因分析与发展对策

Reason Analysis on Regional Differences of Urbanization in China and Development Countermeasure

根据人口增长率递减趋势和城镇化率变化的逻辑斯蒂曲线规律预测了中国未来城镇化发展趋势;利用各地区户籍人口和常住人口数据将流动人口对各地的城镇化贡献进行了评价;采用单元回归的方法研究分析了各种因素对城镇化发展的影响程度,对各地的产业发展现状和产业发展潜力作了初步的定量评价。主要结论有批发和零售业、金融业、房地产业区位商同城镇化率呈正相关,轻工业比重工业更有利于促进城镇化发展;同外界的交往程度是推动城镇化的关键因素,农业资源、矿产资源、人力资源、工业区位资源和旅游资源的优势度决定各地的城镇化发展潜力;劳动力资源、工农业分行业的劳动力密集度,以及工业污染指数是城镇化的限制因素。提出了加强基础设施建设,依托资源优势发展工业,发展劳动密集型产业,加快内陆地区对外开放步伐,积极发展第三产业,以县城为中心承接大中城市产业扩散等加快工业化和城镇化发展对策。

According to the population growth rate decreasing trend and logistic curve growth law for urbanization rate change ,this paper forecasts the future trend of China＇s urbanization development. The floating population＇ s contribution to urbanization is evaluated by using provincial level＇ s household registration population and real resident population data. Single variable regression methods are employed to analyze the impact of various factors on the development of urbanization. A preliminary quantitative evaluation is conducted on local industry development status and industrial development potentials. Main conclusions are local advantage index of wholesale and retail ,financial services ,real estate industry was positively related to the urbanization rate;the light industry is more conducive to the promotion of urbanization development than heavy industry;degree of communication factor to drive urbanization ; relative advantage and exchange with the outside world is the key of agricultural resources, mineral resources, hu- man resources, industrial location and tourist resources make Up for the urbanization develop- ment potential ;labor resources, industrial and agricultural sector labor intensive, and industrial pollution index is the limiting factor for urbanization. Countermeasures advised to accelerate the industrialization and urbanization development are：to strengthen infrastructure construction, to rely on resource advantage to develop industries, to develop the labor - intensive industries, to accelerate the pace of opening up in inland regions, to actively develop the service industries, and to meanly rely on the county town as the center to undertake industrial diffusion from the big and medium -sized cities.