基于灰色系统建模的上海城市居民可支配收入与消费支出关系的实证研究

A Gray System Modeling Based Empirical Study on the Relationship Between Disposable Income and Consumption of Shanghai City Residents

按不同收入层次可支配收入水平与相应的消费支出关系分别建立GM(0,2)模型,分析不同层次收入群体的灰边际消费倾向变化规律;通过GM(1,2)建模,进一步分析了可支配收入对消费支出的驱动作用,研究了可支配收入与消费支出关系系统的协调性;通过对不同时段收入与支出关系的建模比较,进一步分析了不同层次收入群体灰边际消费倾向的动态变化,有效地改善了模型研究的局限性。

This paper analyzes the change regulation of grey marginal propensity to consumption of different income groups by establishing the relationship GM （0,2）group between the different income levels and corresponding consumer spending. Further analysis of the driving action of disposable income on consumer spending and study of the relational system coordination between disposable income and consumer spending are illustrated through modeling GM（1,2）. Through the comparison among the parameters of the models between income and spending in different periods, the dynamic changes of marginal propensity to consumption within the income groups of different levels is discussed, and the limitation of the model research is effectively improved.