弹药长期储存可靠性数据分析方法

Research on Data Analysis Methods of Reliability About Ammunition's Long-term Storage

为了根据弹药的分布模型计算弹药的可靠储存寿命,对基于指数分布、威布尔分布与极小值分布的3种计算思想的弹药储存模型进行比较分析。采用非均匀分布修正法对弹药可靠性试验的数据进行修正,根据修正后的试验数据,结合威布尔分布和极小值分布模型,对失效分布函数采用极大似然估计的方法进行参数估计,且将该分布模型计算出的可靠度与GJB可靠度进行比较,通过最大似然估计法计算,极小χ2检验法检验出其中较优的分布模型。实验结果证明:极小值模型为最优,该批弹药的储存寿命为24 a。

For calculating reliable ammunition storage life based on ammunition distribution model, compare and analyze ammunition storage models of index distribution, weibull distribution and minimum distribution. Use non-uniform distribution correction method to correct ammunition reliability test data. According to correction test data, combined with weibull distribution model and minimum distribution model, use maximum likelihood estimation method to estimate parameter of failure distribution function, and then compare reliability degree of this model with GJB reliability degree. Through maximum likelihood estimation method calculation and minimumχ2 tested method, test the optimal distribution model. The test results show that： the minimum method model is optimal, its ammunition storage life is 24 years.