城乡建设用地流转中置换指标的预警研究——以重庆市地票交易为例

Research on the Early-Warning of Replaceable Land Acreages of Urban and Rural Construction Land Circulation: Take Chongqing's Land Ticket Trade as an Example

研究目的:城乡建设用地流转中置换指标的预警研究可以较好地判别未来土地利用可能出现的风险和威胁,以重庆市地票交易中用地置换指标为例,可以更好地完善地票交易制度。研究方法:运用头脑风暴法和德尔菲法确定用地置换指标预警的警兆体系,利用极差标准化的方法进行指标数据的无量纲转换,用熵值法计算指标权重,采用bootstrap抽样法和正态分布"3σ"方法确定警度阈值。研究结果:2009年重庆市地票交易中用地置换指标量处于过冷区间,2010年在偏冷区间,2011年在正常区间,2012年和2013年达到过热区间,说明用地置换指标交易量过大,超越了社会经济发展的速度,需要加以控制,否则将会提前消耗未来城镇建设用地储备量。研究结论:研究选取的警兆评价体系能够较好地反映重庆市地票交易中用地置换指标量的变化状况,研究警度阈值的方法有一定合理性,警度发展滞后于用地置换量的变化,警度可用于修正年度城乡建设用地供给量,作为限制过度土地供给的一个依据。

Researching on early-warning system of the replaceable land acreages during the urban and rural construction land circulation can better determine possible risk and dangers of land use in the future. And furthermore, Chongqing’s replaceable land acreage is taken as an example can better improve Chongqing’s land ticket trade. The methods used in this paper included Brainstorming Method and Delphi Method, Xmax-Xmin Standardization, Entropy Method, the normal distribution of “the 3σ” methods and simple method of bootstrap and so on. The results of this paper show that the Chongqing’s replaceable land acreages are “under-cooling” in 2009, “cold” in 2010, the “normal” range in 2011,“overheating” in 2012 and in 2013. The results indicated that the amounts of the replaceable land are too much and exceed the speed of social and economic in Chongqing. So the local government needs control the amount of land supply in case of consuming the future land reserve excessively. The key conclusions from this paper are as follows： the warning signs evaluation system can better reflect the change state of Chongqing’s replaceable land acreages. The research methods of dividing the boundary line of the early-warning system are reasonable to certain degree. The warning degree lags behind changes of Chongqing’s replaceable land acreages. And the warning degree of this research could be taken on an evaluation basis to adjust and limit the yearly amount of the urban and rural construction land circulation.