我国城市碳排放结构及影响因素分析——以天津市和北京市为例

Factors Affecting Carbon Emissions of Cities in China and the Carbon Structure——Taking Tianjin and Beijing as an Example

运用迪氏对数指标分解方法(LMDI),利用2000—2012年天津市和北京市CO2排放数据,探讨了经济增长、产业结构、能源效率和能源结构等因素对天津市和北京市碳排放的影响,运用投入产出分析方法,以2007年天津市数据和2010年北京市数据对天津市和北京市各行业中隐含碳进行了分析。结果表明,经济增长分别使天津市和北京市碳排放量增长320.4%和198.5%,是推动碳排放增长的主要因素;能源利用效率提高是抑制碳排放增长的主要因素,分别使两市碳排放下降176.1%和107.8%。天津市和北京市最终使用隐含碳分别高于其生产排放碳9.2%和24.4%。

In this paper, empirical analysis of the factors affecting carbon emissions is carried out according to data of Tianjin and Beijing from 2000 to 2012, using LMDI decomposition method. Input-output analysis is also done to analyze their structures of CO2 emissions in production and embodied carbon in final demand. The results show that the economic growth is the main factor driving the growth of carbon emissions in Tianjin and Beijing and makes each city＇ s carbon emissions grow by 198. 5% and 320. 4%. Energy efficiency is a major factor inhibiting the growth of carbon emissions and makes carbon emissions in Tianjin and Beijing decrease by 176. 1% and 107.8% respectively. Meanwhile, the study also finds that the carbon embodied in these two cities＇ final use is much more than that they emitted during production. To Tianjin it is 9. 2% ,and Beijing 24.4%.