基于帕默尔指数石河子地区干湿变化特征

Characteristics of Dry and Wet Climatic Changes Based on Palmer Index in Shihezi Area

为探究石河子地区气候变化特征,指导石河子地区农业生产,以及预测北疆地区气候变化趋势。依据石河子地区石河子、乌拉乌苏、莫索湾、炮台4个气象观测站1961—2009年逐日气温和降水数据等资料,研究了石河子地区的干湿发生频次变化特征。结果表明:石河子地区年干旱发生频次呈下降趋势,1960s和1970s中后期全年干旱严重,1982年后旱情有所缓解;干旱发生频次突变时间为1985年。年际湿润发生频次呈上升趋势,突变时间为1967年。四季干湿发生频次与年际干湿发生频次一致,夏秋季节干旱发生频次下降趋势明显,其湿润频次上升变化同样较为明显。石河子地区年内干湿发生频次中,干旱平均发生频次为26.25次,湿润平均发生频次为7.9次,干旱发生频次远高于湿润发生频次。气候变化下,石河子地区呈明显的湿润化趋势。

The paper aims to explore the characteristics of climate changes,for guiding agriculture productionin Shihezi area,and predicting the trends of climate change in the northern area of Xinjiang.Based on the dailytemperature and rainfall data and other information from 1961 to 2009 of 4 meteorological observation stationsin Shihezi area,including Shihezi,Wulawusu,Mosuowan,and Fortress,the author studied the changes of wetand dry frequency.Results showed that the drought frequency in Shihezi area showed a downward trend.Severe drought occurred throughout the 1960 s as well as the middle and the late of 1970 s,while drought waseased after 1982.The year 1985 marked as the mutation year of drought frequency.Inter-annual wet frequencywas on the rise since the year 1975.Seasonal wet frequency was consistent with the annual frequency of wetand dry,while both the downward trend of drought frequency and the increasing trend of wet in summer andautumn were obvious.As to the annual frequency of wet and dry in Shihezi area,the average frequency ofdrought was 26.25 times and that of the wet was 7.9 times,frequency of drought was much higher than that ofwet.In the context of climate change,Shihezi area showed an obvious moist trend.