近50年芜湖市霜冻变化特征及对农业影响研究

Study on Frost Variation Characteristics and Its Effect on Agriculture in Recent 50 Years in Wuhu City

为了给芜湖市农业生产及防灾减灾提供科学依据,利用芜湖市1960—2011年逐日最低地温资料,采用线性倾向估计法、异常分析等方法研究了霜冻的变化特征,并分析了对芜湖农业的影响。结果表明:(1)芜湖市平均初霜冻日为11月19日,平均终霜冻日为3月17日,平均无霜冻期为247天;(2)初霜冻日约以2.4 d/10 a的速度推后,终霜冻日约以2.1 d/10 a的速度提前,无霜冻期约以4.9 d/10 a的速度延长。(3)1981年起无霜期总体趋势由偏短转为偏长。但未达到气候突变的标准。(4)特(偏)早秋霜冻及特(偏)晚春霜冻出现概率降低,无霜期延长总体有利于农业生产,但由于霜冻发生的不稳定性和危害性,仍需重视霜冻灾害的防范。

The study aims to provide some scientific basis for the agricultural production and disaster prevention in Wuhu City. Based on the surface minimum temperature data of Wuhu Meteorological Station from 1960 to 2011, the author researched the frost variation characteristics and analyzed its impact on agriculture in Wuhu City by linear trend estimation, anomaly analysis and other methods. The results showed that： （1） the average date of the first and the last frost events were November 19^th and March 17^th, and the average frost-free period was 247 days; （2） in recent 50 years in Wuhu, the first frost date appeared later and later with a rate of 2.4 d/10 a; the last frost date appeared earlier and earlier with a rate of 2.1 d/10 a; frost-free period extended at a speed of about 4.9 d/10 a; （3） the overall trend of frost-free period turned from being shorter to being longer in 1981, but did not reach the standard of abrupt climate change; （4） in general, it was conducive to agricultural production that extreme （partial） early fall frost and extreme （partial） late spring frost reduced the probability of frost occurrence and the frost-free period prolonged; however, due to the damage of frost and its instable occurrence, prevention of frost disaster was still needed.