摘要
为应对气候变化对粮食生产的影响,找出两者的内在联系,从而合理指导其生产活动。分析了宜宾市近21年来平均气温、降水量和日照时数3个主要气候因子的变化趋势,结果显示三者皆呈上升趋势,其中日照时数波动的幅度相对较小;利用灰色关联法分析了气候变化对粮食作物的影响,结果表明:年降水量对小麦单产量的增减影响最大,关联度达0.869;年日照时数与稻谷单产的关联性最大,为0.736。由此可知:宜宾市气候对其粮食产量影响之大,尤其是气候产量,这为接下来农业部署提供了依据。
In order to assess the effects of climate change on grain production, find out the internal relations between them and guide local agricultural activities, the author analyzed the variation tendency of 3 main climatic factors （average temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration） in recent 21 years in Yibin City. The results showed that all the 3 factors had an increase tendency, and the fluctuant range of sunshine duration was comparatively small. The grey correlation analysis method was used to analyze the effects of climate change on grain yield. The results showed that the precipitation had the biggest influence on wheat yield with the correlation degree of 0.869; sunshine duration and per unit area yield had the biggest relevance with the correlation degree of 0.736. Therefore, climate change influenced grain yield significantly, especially climate yield. The results could provide basis for agricultural deployment.
出处
《中国农学通报》
2015年第17期241-245,共5页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
四川省教育厅青年基金项目"四川盆中丘陵区降水量与季节性干旱耦合性分析研究"(10ZB011)
教育部人文社会科学基金(11YJA840030)
