衡阳市气象干旱诊断指标与农业旱灾风险关系研究

On Relationship between Agricultural Drought Risk and Meteorological Drought Diagnosis Index in Hengyang City

旱灾是最严重的自然灾害之一,降低农业旱灾风险是农业可持续发展的根本保证。农业旱灾风险是在特定的气象干旱背景上产生,因此,寻求恰当的气象干旱诊断指标,探究气象干旱诊断方法与农业旱灾风险的关联性对降低农业旱灾风险具有重要意义。以处于南方湿润地区的衡阳市为研究对象,选取1981—2010年的气温与降水等气象要素,从降水距平百分率、德马顿湿润指数、降水温度均一化指标和标准化降水指数4个气象干旱诊断指标判定衡阳市气象干旱等级,结合衡阳市农业旱灾受灾面积,采用回归分析法探究衡阳市气象干旱和农业旱灾风险的相关性,期望找到诊断衡阳市干旱等级最恰当的气象干旱诊断指标,为衡阳市农业防旱抗旱提供较为科学的理论依据。

Drought is one of the most serious natural disasters.To reduce the risk of agricultural drought is the fundamental guarantee for the sustainable development of agriculture.Agricultural drought disaster risk is produced in the background of the meteorological drought.Explore the relationship between Agricultural Drought Risk and Meteorological Drought Diagnosis Index is of great significance to reduce the risk of agricultural drought.This paper choose Hengyang city,a humid area in the south,as the study case,selected nearly 30 years of meteorological elements such as temperature and precipitation,and from the precipitation anomaly percentage,DE Mattoon wetness index,precipitation,temperature homogenization index.These three meteorological drought diagnosis indexes decided the grade of Hengyang city meteorological drought.Combined with the Hengyang city agricultural drought in the affected area,the paper used the regression analysis method to analysis the correla-tion of Hengyang city meteorological drought and agricultural drought and found that Hengyang city agricultural drought risk is the most appropriate meteorological drought index of diagnosis.The research can provide a scientific reference basis for agricul-tural drought control in Hengyang city.