哈萨克斯坦如何应对“荷兰病”

How does Kazakhstan Deal with “Dutch Disease”?

根据Corden和Neary提出的"荷兰病"理论模型及国内外相关研究,文章分别从世界石油价格波动是否直接影响哈萨克斯坦货币的汇率、外商直接投资是否更倾向于能源部门、能源行业是否存在工资上涨效应三个方面,对制造业等非能源型行业是否存在"去工业化"现象进行研究,发现哈萨克斯坦已经存在"荷兰病"的征兆。为此,对目前哈国政府所采取的建立哈国国民基金、促进经济结构转型等应对"荷兰病"的政策措施进行了分析。

According to the theoretical model of ＂Dutch disease＂ proposed by Corden and Neary, in addition to related researches both at home and abroad, this paper explores whether ＂de-industrialization＂ exists in non-energy industry including manufacturing, respectively from three aspects, namely, whether global oil price fluctuations direct influence Kazakhstan currency exchange rates, whether foreign direct investment is more inclined to the energy sector, and whether wages increase in energy sector. In conclusion, this paper holds that signs of ＂Dutch disease＂ has already existed in Kazakhstan. As a result, this paper analyzes related countermeasures including Kazakhstan government＇s establishing the national fund and promoting the economic structure transition.