2009年后缅甸国内冲突的地缘政治学视角解读

Interpretation of the Conflict in Myanmar from Geopolitical Perspective after 2009

缅甸建国后的数十年里,中央政府与各地少数民族武装之间的冲突一直处于打打停停的战乱状态。然而2009年后缅甸国内冲突开始走向国际化,其未来形势变得异常复杂多变。2015年缅甸国内冲突的规模和持续性更进一步印证了这点。文章从地缘政治学视角,结合实地调研所做的访谈和问卷,得出一个基本观点:缅甸国内地缘冲突已经不再是单纯的国内民族问题,而是全球地缘政治经济格局变化下的大国博弈的焦点之一;全球地缘格局变化导致大国地缘战略在缅甸汇聚,从而导致缅甸在全球地缘区位的变化。缅甸不过是大国全球博弈的一个新战场,再加上缅北和缅甸东部的地理特征和缅甸少数民族武装的地缘关系成就了当前和未来的冲突,乃至缅甸的国内局势走向。

In the years after Myanmar independence, the conflicts between the central government and local ethnic armies have varied between a state of fighting and periods of relative calm. But after 2009, the conflict in Myanmar began to internationalize, the situation became more complicated, and changed in nature. The scale and the continued fighting in the Myanmar domestic conflict into 2015 confirms this. Based on interviews and a questionnaire, this article confirms the point of view that Myanmar＇s domestic geopolitical conflict is no longer just due to domestic ethnic problems, but has come into the sphere of the ＂big game＂ between America and China in the context of global geopolitical and economic structural change. The changes in the global geopolitical pattern have led to the convergence of geopolitical strategy between the great powers in Myanmar. The result is the global geopolitical change in the location of Myanmar. Myanmar has become a new front in the global game of great powers, and the geographical characteristics in Northern and eastern Myanmar combined with the ethnic armed geopolitical relations in the north, have changed permanently the geopolitical significance of the conflicts of Myanmar, and altered as well the domestic situation of Myanmar.