2015年缅北局势的未来走向及中国应对策略

Politics Situation and Development Trend in the North Myanmar in 2015 and China's Countermeasures

美国对缅甸解禁之后,缅甸成为中美在东亚战略竞争的核心。缅政府和少数民族地方武装均试图利用各方势力达到其政治诉求,因此,缅北局势受多方势力共同影响。当前的缅北局势正是不同主体之间交往关系和交往实践的集中体现,是以美国为首的西方大国势力、中国、缅政府以及少数民族地方武装等主体相互作用的结果。文章从主体间性角度出发,结合全球地缘格局的变化,对缅北局势中的各主体行为及彼此间的关系进行分析,结合调查数据和访谈,对缅甸局势进行了判断。得出的一个基本观点是:短期内,即大选之前,局势动荡,激烈冲突持续;长期内,即大选之后,总体局势趋于和平,伴随间断性的冲突。据此,最后提出,未来中国应该加大政府间合作,防止美国过多介入,改变在缅投资方式,维护中国在缅形象,尝试与少数民族武装和其他政治党派接触,以大国的身份"创造性介入",妥善解决缅北冲突。

After the US resumed official relationship with Myanmar, the nation has become the key area of Sino-US East Asia strategy. The Myanmar government and its local minority ethnic military forces have made any effort to fulfill their political goals. Thus, the political situation of North Myanmar is subject to many parts, and the current situation is reflecting the complicated relationship among different parts, including US, China, Myanmar government and local ethnic military forces. From the perspective of inter-subjectivity, along with global geopolitical changes, we analyzed the actions of main parts and their inter-relationships in the North Myanmar situation. Based on the interview and the investigation data, we inferred the future situation in Myanmar. The conclusion is as follows： in the short run, before the presidential election, the situation will be unstable and with lasting intense tensions; in the long run, after the election, the situation will tends to be pacified but with temporary tensions. It suggests that China should strengthen inter-governmental cooperation to prevent the US intervention in the future, and change its investments, maintain the national image in Myanmar. China can also attempt to keep contact with local military forces and other parties, as an impressive nation, creatively involving the regional affairs to properly solve the conflicts in the North Myanmar.