缅北果敢冲突的时空演进及其对中国边境安全的直接影响——基于事件数据及实地调查的解读

Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Ko Kang Conflicts in the Northern Myanmar and Its Immediate Impacts on China's Border Security: Based on the Event Data and Field Survey

基于事件数据及实地调查和访谈数据,首先对缅北果敢冲突的时空演进进行梳理,分析不同阶段冲突双方的战争目标及其冲突的空间特征;在此基础上,分析缅北果敢冲突对中国边境沿线的传统安全影响——边境沿线直接遭受到战争伤害和威胁,以及非传统安全影响——边境沿线的社会恐慌及不安定因素增加,并基于缅北果敢冲突的空间分异探讨了冲突对中国边境安全影响的区域差异,即在毗邻果敢南部的中国边境一线,最直接的安全问题是缅甸军机的越境以及缅方炸弹落入中国境内造成中国边境沿线人民的财产损失和生命安全威胁;在毗邻果敢北部的中国边境一线,最直接的安全问题是大量缅甸果敢籍边民为躲避战乱进入中国后引发的社会稳定与社会安全隐患问题。最后,研究认为双方交战的主战场有可能进一步靠近中缅边境并向果敢北部地区扩展,如果冲突持续发展将对东南亚及东印度洋地区的地缘政治经济关系产生深远影响。

Since the adjacent Chinese border, the military conflict of Kokang area in Northern Myanmar has an immediate impact on China＇s border security. Based on the event data and field survey data, the article reviews the spatial-temporal evolution pattern of Kokang Conflict in Northern Myanmar, and analyzes the war aims of both the Myanmar Government Army and MNDAA and the spatial characteristics of the conflict at different stages; On this basis, this paper analyzes the traditional security impact along China＇s border caused by the Kokang Conflict, i.e. direct war damages and threats, as well as the non-traditional ones that may lead to social panic and increasing social uncertainty. The regional differences of China＇s border security in response to the spatial variation of Kokang Conflict, the most immediate security problem is the loss of property and the life security threats of the Chinese people along the border caused by Myanmar military aircraft cross-border or Myanmar bomb falling in China near the southern Kokang, the most immediate security issue is social stability and social safety problems caused by a lot of Kokang refugees into China along the border near the northern Kokang. Finally, this study suggests that the main battlefield of warring parties is likely to further close to China-Myanmar border and extend to the northern Kokang, if the conflicts continued it would have had profound impacts on the geo-political and economic relations in Southeast Asia and the eastern Indian Ocean Region.