丽水山区影响枇杷生长发育的临界气温历史变化特征分析

Characteristics of critical climatic temperature change in growing stage of loquat in the mountain area of Lishui

根据1953—2013年丽水市国家气象观测站逐日气温观测资料,确定枇杷关键生育期的临界气温,通过多尺度趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验等方法分析枇杷生长临界气温的气候变化特征,评估低温冻害和高温热害对枇杷生长发育的影响。结果表明:枇杷开花期、幼果期和成熟期受影响的临界气温分别为-5℃,-3℃和30℃,其中花期"三花"受冻害的概率最高,幼果期在1月份受冻害的可能性最大,成熟期受高温影响的概率增加。枇杷花果期低温从70年代开始,≤-3℃低温日数显著减少,同时极端最低气温明显上升,且在21世纪最为显著;枇杷成熟期高温的影响主要体现在90年代之后,极端最高气温和≥30℃的高温日数明显增多;由此推测丽水山区枇杷遭受低温冻害的概率在降低,但受到高温热害的概率却增加。

Based on the daily temperature observation data from Lishui meteorological station during 1953 to 2013,the critical temperature in loquat fruit growth was determined. The methods such as multi-scale analysis,Mann-Kendall test were used to analyze the climatic change in loquat growth,and to assess the impact of low temperature frozen injury and heat injury on loquat growth. The results showed that： the critical temperature of flowering,young fruit stage and maturity of loquat were at- 5,- 3 and 30℃,respectively,the flowering stages named as＂the third flowers＂was affected mostly by freezing,the possibility of frozen injury was the maximum in January in young fruit stage and the probability of heat injury was increased in maturity. The number of days less than- 3℃ during loquat flowering significantly reduced,while the extreme minimum temperature increased significantly,especially in the 21 st century; The most significant effects caused by high temperature on loquat mature were mainly in the 1990 s,and the high temperature days ≥30℃ significantly increased. Therefore,the probability of frozen injury to loquat reduced,butheat injury increased in the mountain area of Lishui.