ARIMA模型在重庆市能源消耗量预测中的应用

Application of ARIMA Model in the Prediction of Energy Consumption of Chongqing

能源是人类赖以生存和发展的重要物质基础,对经济的快速发展和人们生活水平的大幅度提高起着无可取代的作用,随着经济的发展人们对能源的需求日益增多,由于地球上的资源是有限的,对未来能源消耗量的准确预测显得尤为重要;运用ARIMA模型对《2013重庆市统计年鉴》中重庆市1981-2012年能源消耗量数据进行分析,结果显示:ARIMA(2,3,2)模型预测未来的结果较为准确,为重庆市资源消耗量提供了可靠的依据。

Resource is important basic material for human survival and development. It plays an irreplaceablerole in the rapid development of economy and greatly improving people＇s living standards. With the development ofeconomy, people＇s demand for energy is increasing, because the resources are limited on earth, therefore, it isparticularly important to accurately predict future energy consumption. This paper uses ARIMA model to analyze1981-2012 annual energy consumption data of Chongqing based on Chongqing Statistical Yearbook 2013. The resultshows that the predict of future energy consumption by ARIMA （2,3,2） model is more accurate, which providesreliable basis for resource consumption of Chongqing.