产业结构服务化与消费率的长期关系及对中国的启示——基于跨国数据的面板协整分析

Long-Term Correlation Between Tertiarization Level and Consumption Rate and Enlightenment for China:A Panel Cointegration Analysis Based on Transnational Data

与发达国家和多数发展中国家相比,我国宏观经济表现出产业结构服务化程度和消费率均较低的局面。本文以82个国家的面板数据为基础,按国民收入高低分为四组,进行协整检验和回归分析。结果发现,二者之间的长期稳定关系是存在的,产业结构服务化程度与国内消费率显著正相关。中国等上中等收入国家的这一关系尤为明显。因此,在产业结构上促进服务化程度的提高,大力发展服务业,对于缓解国内消费长期不足的局面具有重要意义。

Chinese economy is characterized by relatively low tertiarization level of industrial structure and domestic consumption rate compared with most developed and developing nations. Cointegration test and regression analysis is conducted based upon panel date of 82 nations of four national income groups during 1980-2012. Results show that long--term positive correlation relationship exists within the two variables, especially when we test it using data of middle-income nations like China. Consequently, we believe that improving tertiarization level through development of service industry makes contribution to easing the problem of under--consumption and adds momentum to economic growth.